A strong cold front is moving across the Great Australian Bight, expected to bring windy, wet and cold weather to the south-east states from later today.
We already have a number of warnings current across the south-east extending from Nullarbor in South Australia all the way across to Wollongong on the east coast.
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Now, most of these warnings are Severe Weather Warnings for damaging winds hitting the exposed coasts and elevated parts of the south-east.
Winds of this strength can bring down trees or powerlines and create dangerous driving conditions, particularly across the eastern alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, where blizzards are also becoming a risk from later today, going into tomorrow, as snow combines with those strong winds.
But it's worth noting that one of these warnings is in fact a Coastal Hazard Warning.
Across the south-eastern Victorian coastline, a Coastal Hazard Warning is flagging the risk of abnormally high tides in the wake of this frontal system through the later part of tomorrow, possibly even into early Sunday.
Communities through central and eastern Gippsland should be aware that abnormally high tides might lead to local inundation of lower lying areas through the later part of tomorrow and be in touch with local emergency services if that's of concern. Let's take a bit of a closer look at the winds now.
Now, looking above the surface because it gives us a good indication of the strength of the wind gusts when they reach the surface, we can see an interesting pattern.
The strongest winds, marked in red and pink are not just ahead of the front, but following behind the front as well.
Now, what this means is that even once the front has passed, we may still see strong and gusty winds moving through, particularly with showers.
The stronger winds are likely to sweep across south-east South Australia through the course of today, reaching Adelaide and the Mount Lofty Ranges later this afternoon and evening and bringing that risk of damaging winds to those populated areas.
The stronger winds will push into Victoria overnight, mostly about the Central and Eastern Ranges, spilling over into parts of New South Wales as well. Through the course of tomorrow those windy conditions will continue, mainly through Victoria and south-east New South Wales, but we'll start to see the winds really flaring across the Blue Mountains and Illawarra areas of New South Wales.
A very windy day on the way with that potential for damaging wind gusts.
Winds are likely to ease later on Saturday going into Sunday as the system moves away.
So, that's the windy weather.
What about the cold?
Looking at our snow forecast, we can see the snow flaring across the eastern ranges of Victoria and south-east New South Wales.
Another 30 to 50 cm of snow is possible across the weekend through our alpine resorts but we may even see a dusting about the Central New South Wales Ranges later tomorrow.
It's unlikely to amount to very much, however, and unlikely to push any further north.
It's also worth noting that as that coldest air moves up behind the front tomorrow in the south-westerly flow, we might also see small hail across parts of south-east South Australia, southern Victoria and south-east New South Wales.
Now, that's the wind, that's the cold.
What about the rain?
How much rain are we going to expect with this front?
Well, generally moderate rainfall totals are expected on and south of the ranges but we can see over the course of the weekend, we do have some higher totals accumulating, particularly about the exposed coasts and elevated parts of the south-east.
In those areas, we could see 50 to 80 mm across the course of the next few days, although about the eastern alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, a lot of that will be falling as snow.
With a number of hazards on the forecast already as this front approaches, it is imperative to stay up to date with all of the latest forecast and warnings via the Bureau's website and the BOM social media.
Have a good weekend.
Stay safe and we'll catch you next time.
Possibly
Meaning: Indicates a chance or possibility of something happening.
Probability: Suggests a lower level of certainty.
Usage: Used when there is a chance something might happen, but it’s not very likely.
Example:
"It might possibly rain tomorrow." (There’s a chance it will rain tomorrow, but it’s not very likely.)
Likely
Meaning: Indicates a higher probability or likelihood of something happening.
Probability: Suggests a higher level of certainty.
Usage: Used when something is expected to happen with a higher probability.
Example:
"It is likely to rain tomorrow." (There’s a high chance it will rain tomorrow.)
Key Points for Differentiation
Certainty: "Likely" has a higher certainty compared to "possibly".
Nuance: "Likely" implies that something is expected to happen, whereas "possibly" implies that something could happen, but it's less certain.
Example Sentences
"We might possibly see some snow tomorrow." (There’s a small chance of seeing snow tomorrow.)
"We are likely to see some snow tomorrow." (There’s a high chance of seeing snow tomorrow.)
In summary, use "likely" when the probability is high and use "possibly" when the probability is lower.
Spilling
Meaning: Refers to the action of something flowing over or out of a container or confined space, often in an uncontrolled manner.
Nuance: Suggests a natural, often uncontrolled spread.
Usage: Typically used for liquids or situations where something overflows or spreads out from a confined area.
Examples:
"The crowd was spilling out of the stadium." (The people were overflowing and spreading out from the stadium.)
"The water was spilling over the edge of the glass." (The water was flowing over the rim of the glass.)
Sweep
Meaning: Refers to something moving or spreading swiftly and forcefully over a large area.
Nuance: Implies a strong, often rapid spread.
Usage: Often used for phenomena like wind, waves, or movements that cover a wide area quickly.
Examples:
"A cold front is sweeping across the country." (The cold front is moving swiftly and extensively across the country.)
"The news quickly swept through the community." (The news spread rapidly throughout the community.)
Key Points for Differentiation
Natural vs. Forceful Spread: "Spilling" suggests a natural, often uncontrolled spread, while "sweep" implies a powerful, rapid spread.
Scale and Force: "Sweep" is used for larger, more forceful movements, whereas "spilling" is more about smaller, less forceful overflow or spread.
Example Sentences
"The water was spilling onto the floor." (The water was overflowing onto the floor.) → Natural overflow.
"The storm is expected to sweep across the region." (The storm is expected to move forcefully across the region.) → Powerful and extensive spread.
In summary, use "spilling" for natural, often uncontrolled spread or overflow, and "sweep" for rapid, forceful spread across a larger area.
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